Recently I have seen a lot of articles online with the very alarming statement that ‘all gigs will be banned until August 2021’.
And I don’t think it’s crazy to assume some people have shared these articles without actually reading past the headline.
So, I did some basic research and found several of these articles, ranging in quality from Business Insider to the Metro.
The basic gist of all the the articles is that concerts, sports and other large-scale events won’t return until ‘late into 2021’ because of the Lockdown and how long it will take to end it.
But this alarming statement leads to some questions.
- How likely is this date?
- What is it based on?
- Is it all just guesswork?
Well let’s look a little deeper and see what we can discover.
The Basics
The oft-quoted statement about no large-scale events until 2021 comes from Zeke Emanuel, a bioethicist and professor of healthcare management for Chicago.
So, let’s look into exactly what he said and how likely it is that he’s correct.
The quote came during a New York Times roundtable. Mr. Emanuel was questioning why people were postponing certain events (like concerts and sporting events) for as early as late 2020.
“…I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility. I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.”
– Zeke Emanuel
He isn’t wrong with this observation. While many businesses and events have had to be cancelled, some are just being rescheduled. However, when to reschedule things for is not an easy thing to answer.
Some have taken the insane strategy of planning to reopen/put on events again incredibly quickly. In Britain, Horse Racing was set to begin again at the start of May, though that has now thankfully been pushed back.
Other events, like Slam Dunk festival, were initially pushed back by several months. While originally set to take place in May, Slam Dunk has currently been postponed until September.
The question is: is this enough?
How long does the Lockdown really need to go on for to give us the best chance of beating the Coronavirus?
Stopping Lockdown
The important thing to remember is that Lockdown was huge step for countries to have taken, and widespread disruption cannot be understated.
Stopping the lockdown isn’t as simple as telling everyone to leave their homes and go about their daily lives as if the past 5 months didn’t happen.
If the Lockdown is lifted too quickly, a second wave of the Coronavirus may be right around the corner and we’re all back to square one.
As Mr. Emmanuel stated; the lockdown needs to be lifted in stages; with the rules being eased off, rather than disbanding them entirely.
Yes, get people back to work, but keep the social distancing rules in place where possible.
One Mans Opinion?
Basically: no.
Mr. Emmanual is not the only person to hold the belief that the lockdown may need to stretch on for a long time.
The LA Mayor, Eric Garcetti said that large-scale events may not be permitted in LA and NYC until 2021. This was discussed at a weekly briefing after a question from the Los Angeles Fire department.
A spokesperson from the office said that a definite timeline could not be drawn up, but that the Mayor’s statements were based on scientific studies and recommendations.
Likelihood
So, we know that several important or educated peple think that stopping events until 20201 is the right call.
But how likely is it to happen? Really?
Well, with the UK extending the lockdown by another 3 weeks minimum, we know that this Lockdown has the possibility of going on far beyond what we ever expected.
Given how blindsided everyone seems to have been by the coronavirus in general, its totally possible.
Maybe we’re all just still wearing rose-colored glasses and refuse to see just how long the lockdown could actually go on for.
On March 29th, England’s Chief Medical Officer, Jenny Harries, stated that it would be several months until we could see what effect the lockdown has had, and potentially 6 months until it could start to be lifted and the country could return to “normal.
(No word on what exactly “normal” will mean after this is all over…)
My Opinion
The last time I made a post about the Coronavirus, it was about whether or not it would cause Download Festival to be cancelled, and boy was I wrong with THAT prediction!
So I’m not going to say “Don’t listen to these scientists! Of COURSE gigs will be back on before the end of 2020!”
However, I will say that people are getting sick of the lockdown, and I think everyone wants to get society back to normal (or as normal as possible) sooner rather than later.
It’s a horrible situation, but we have to trust that the scientists know what they’re talking about and that the lockdown will not go on for any longer than it has to.
In summary:
Is it entirely possible that gigs won’t return until 2021?
Yes.
Do I think people will try their hardest for gigs to come back as soon as possible?
Also yes.
